The 2016 EU referendum produced an estimated 52% Leave vote and 48% Remain vote among voters in Great Britain. The Ipsos EU referendum estimate also showed a marked demographic divide: younger people, graduates and students were more likely to have voted Remain, while older people, those without qualifications and retired voters were more likely to have voted Leave.
Contents
- Overall result and gender
- Age differences
- Age and gender together
- Social class and education
- Work and housing status
- Ethnicity and other demographic groups
- Turnout by age and social class
Overall result and gender
The Ipsos estimate placed the overall referendum split at 48% Remain and 52% Leave among Great Britain voters. This is the baseline for comparing the demographic groups below. The figures are estimates for the EU referendum, rather than a current measure of public opinion.
Gender differences were present but smaller than some of the age, education and social-class differences. Men were estimated to have voted 45% Remain and 55% Leave. Women were estimated at 51% Remain and 49% Leave.
| Group | Remain | Leave |
|---|---|---|
| All GB voters | 48% | 52% |
| Men | 45% | 55% |
| Women | 51% | 49% |
The gender pattern therefore ran in opposite directions: the estimated male vote leaned Leave, while the estimated female vote leaned slightly Remain. These percentages describe the reported choice within each group and should not be read as the number of votes cast by each demographic.
Age differences
Age was one of the clearest dividing lines in the Ipsos estimate. The youngest age group, voters aged 18–24, was estimated at 75% Remain and 25% Leave. Among people aged 25–34, the estimate was 60% Remain and 40% Leave. Voters aged 35–44 were estimated at 55% Remain and 45% Leave.
The balance shifted among older groups. Voters aged 45–54 were estimated at 44% Remain and 56% Leave. Those aged 55–64 were estimated at 39% Remain and 61% Leave. The estimate for voters aged 65–74 was 34% Remain and 66% Leave, while voters aged 75 and over were estimated at 37% Remain and 63% Leave.
| Age group | Remain | Leave |
|---|---|---|
| 18–24 | 75% | 25% |
| 25–34 | 60% | 40% |
| 35–44 | 55% | 45% |
| 45–54 | 44% | 56% |
| 55–64 | 39% | 61% |
| 65–74 | 34% | 66% |
| 75+ | 37% | 63% |
The Ipsos EU referendum estimate thus showed Remain ahead in each listed age group below 45, while Leave was ahead in each listed group aged 45 and above. The difference was especially pronounced at the youngest and oldest ends of the table.
Age and gender together
Combining age and gender gives a more detailed view of the estimated voting pattern. Among men aged 18–34, the estimate was 64% Remain and 36% Leave. For men aged 35–54, it was 44% Remain and 56% Leave, and for men aged 55 and over it was 35% Remain and 65% Leave.
Women aged 18–34 were estimated at 67% Remain and 33% Leave. Women aged 35–54 were estimated at 55% Remain and 45% Leave. Among women aged 55 and over, the estimate was 39% Remain and 61% Leave.
| Age and gender group | Remain | Leave |
|---|---|---|
| Men, 18–34 | 64% | 36% |
| Men, 35–54 | 44% | 56% |
| Men, 55+ | 35% | 65% |
| Women, 18–34 | 67% | 33% |
| Women, 35–54 | 55% | 45% |
| Women, 55+ | 39% | 61% |
The estimates show a Remain majority for both younger gender groups, with the female estimate higher at 67%. In the 35–54 group, men leaned Leave at 56%, while women leaned Remain at 55%. Among people aged 55 and over, both groups leaned Leave, at 65% for men and 61% for women.
Social class and education
The social-class estimates also varied substantially. Social class AB was estimated at 59% Remain and 41% Leave, while C1 was estimated at 52% Remain and 48% Leave. The C2 estimate was 38% Remain and 62% Leave, and DE was 36% Remain and 64% Leave.
Within each social class, the Ipsos estimate recorded the following gender splits:
- Men in AB: 54% Remain and 46% Leave; men in C1: 51% Remain and 49% Leave.
- Men in C2: 35% Remain and 65% Leave; men in DE: 36% Remain and 64% Leave.
- Women in AB: 65% Remain and 35% Leave; women in C1: 54% Remain and 46% Leave.
- Women in C2: 41% Remain and 59% Leave; women in DE: 37% Remain and 63% Leave.
Education showed an even wider separation in the supplied estimates. Voters with a degree or higher were estimated at 68% Remain and 32% Leave. Voters with other qualifications were estimated at 44% Remain and 56% Leave. Voters with no qualifications were estimated at 30% Remain and 70% Leave.
These figures describe estimated referendum choices within the named education and class groups. They do not establish that education or social class caused an individual vote, and they do not provide a count of voters in each category.
Work and housing status
The work-status estimates were mixed. Full-time workers and part-time workers were each estimated at 53% Remain and 47% Leave. Public-sector workers were estimated at 56% Remain and 44% Leave, while private-sector workers were estimated at 52% Remain and 48% Leave.
Other groups leaned Leave. Unemployed voters were estimated at 40% Remain and 60% Leave. People not working and looking after home were estimated at 36% Remain and 64% Leave. Retired voters were also estimated at 36% Remain and 64% Leave. Students were the strongest Remain group in the work-status figures, at 80% Remain and 20% Leave. Other work-status respondents were estimated at 39% Remain and 61% Leave.
Housing status produced another set of differences. Mortgage holders were estimated at 54% Remain and 46% Leave, and private renters at 56% Remain and 44% Leave. Homeowners were estimated at 42% Remain and 58% Leave, while social renters were estimated at 37% Remain and 63% Leave.
The housing categories should be kept distinct: the supplied estimate lists homeowners, mortgage holders, social renters and private renters separately. No arithmetic combining these categories is supplied, so they are reported individually.
Ethnicity and other demographic groups
The ethnicity figures in the Ipsos EU referendum estimate show a difference between White voters and all BME voters. White voters were estimated at 46% Remain and 54% Leave. All BME voters were estimated at 69% Remain and 31% Leave.
Because the source label is “all BME voters,” this article retains that wording rather than assigning the figure to particular ethnic groups. The estimate is a broad category result and does not provide separate percentages for individual ethnicities.
Across the wider demographic breakdown, the most pronounced estimated Remain shares were among students at 80%, voters aged 18–24 at 75%, all BME voters at 69% and voters with a degree or higher at 68%. The highest estimated Leave shares were among voters with no qualifications at 70%, men aged 55 and over at 65%, social class C2 at 62%, and voters aged 55–64 at 61%. These are comparisons of the supplied group percentages, not a ranking of total vote contributions.
Turnout by age and social class
The Ipsos EU referendum estimate reported turnout in two ways: as a percentage of the total population and as a percentage of registered voters. Estimated turnout among all Great Britain adults was 66% of the total population and 72% of registered voters.
Turnout increased across the age groups through age 74 before falling for the 75-plus group. The estimates were 53% of the total population and 64% of registered voters for 18–24s; 54% and 68% for 25–34s; 64% and 71% for 35–44s; and 69% and 73% for 45–54s. For 55–64s, the figures were 76% and 78%; for 65–74s, 78% and 80%; and for 75-plus voters, 66% and 70%.
| Group | Total population turnout | Registered-voter turnout |
|---|---|---|
| All GB adults | 66% | 72% |
| 18–24 | 53% | 64% |
| 25–34 | 54% | 68% |
| 35–44 | 64% | 71% |
| 45–54 | 69% | 73% |
| 55–64 | 76% | 78% |
| 65–74 | 78% | 80% |
| 75+ | 66% | 70% |
The gender turnout estimates were 67% of the total population and 74% of registered voters for men, compared with 64% and 71% for women. By social class, AB voters were estimated at 74% and 79%; C1 at 68% and 75%; C2 at 62% and 70%; and DE at 57% and 65%, using the same two turnout measures.
These turnout estimates matter when interpreting demographic voting shares. A group’s estimated Remain or Leave percentage describes the choice among that group’s voters, while turnout describes how many people in the group were estimated to participate under each denominator. The two measures answer different questions and should not be substituted for one another.